Numbers Game Begins
with 5th CD challengers
By BRIAN A. HOWEY

INDIANAPOLIS - It’s a numbers game in the 5th CD. The money numbers came out this week with Luke Messer posting $102,262 while U.S. Rep.Dan Burton posted $157,000. Burton has $442,000 cash on hand; Messer $241,000. And then there’s the rest of the challenger field: State Rep. Mike Murphy raised $31,000 for the quarter and has $173,925 cash on hand. Dr. John McGoff raised $55,000 and has $77,000 cash on hand. Brose McVey raised $31,000 and has $62,000. Outside of Burton and Messer, and maybe Murphy, it was hard to conceive how McGoff and McVey can win a five-way race with only enough funds to buy a couple of direct mail pieces.
    
The Murphy numbers were the most surprising. He posted more than $100,000 in the third quarter and HPI believed that he had the momentum going into this reporting period. Murphy insisted that “I’ll have the media budget we have to meet. But we need every penny we can get.” But Murphy produced a Bellwether Research Poll (Jan. 25-27, with likely Republican primary voters, +/-5.6%) that showed Burton’s reelection numbers at 28 percent, down from 35 percent a year ago. ”Lee Atwater used to say that if an incumbent was under 40 percent, he was a dead man,” Murphy said.
    
The second poll question was which challenger was in the best position to defeat Burton? Murphy said it showed that 16 percent favored his candidacy and McGoff’s, 15 percent Messer, and 11 percent McVey, while 43 percent didn’t have enough information. “It’s a wide open race,” Murphy declared. “I love a good fight and we’re gonna have one.”
    
Hours earlier, McVey told HPI that he wanted to see some polling numbers. “I’d entertain in the conversation of having them share the cost of a survey,” he said of his fellow challengers. “I want to see new legs on the playing field. I don’t want to hand this back to an incumbent who’s not getting the job done.” As for his own money numbers, McVey explained, “It’s kind of a period of reflection for me. The more I get committed and emotionally attached to the issues and what this country needs, the more the money game and practical side becomes a love/hate deal. I am more committed to the agenda to save us from our own fiscal suicide. At the same time, I want to rejuvenate new leadership. At this point, I’m committed.” As the challenger field took shape last summer, McVey said he would be open to culling the field based on financial numbers, polling and organizational strength. Murphy’s Bellwether poll could put the damper on that.
    
Messer told HPI he’s best positioned among the challenger class. “We’ve got strong grassroots in each county,” he said. We’ve done town halls in all 11 counties. Then you have to combine that with a strong effort on the issues and the kind of paid media it takes to reach the 80,000 primary voters. We’ve been working hard for 10 months to do something hard which is to beat an incumbent. We’ve got the foundation laid and now we execute during the next 90 days.” Of consolidating the field, Messer explained, “We have to be talking to the other candidates. The other guys have to look in the mirror and reach their own decisions. But we have to reach out. There’s no backroom way to get this done.”
    
If no one gets out, Messer noted that former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin won a five-way primary in 2006, but those types of upsets are rare. Messer’s campaign consultant, Jennifer Hallowell, added, “We’ve spent the last 10 months building an organization aimed at winning this campaign and by every objective measure, Luke is the clear front-runner. For months and months lots of Republican leaders and candidates have talked about the need for leadership and the need for a new congressman. If we are all serious - if that’s important - we need to come together to support the candidate who has the best ability to win and clearly that’s Luke. He’s led in fund-raising every quarter. We’ve got a grassroots organization across the district. He’s got significant endorsements with the sheriffs in Hamilton and Hancock counties.”
    
This race seems volatile. We still believe the five-man field favors Burton. We don’t know how the Tea Party movement will impact the race (Burton rallied with them at the Indiana Statehouse last April 15). Messer seems to be in the best position to overtake the incumbent, but that would be bolstered by the field culling and we’re not sure that’s going to happen. HPI Horse Race: Leans Burton